Dismiss Powell? The anti inflation defense line in the United States may collapse, and the long-term inflation risk spiral will escalate Core risk: The independence of the Federal Reserve is coming to an end -If Trump fires Powell or breaks the tradition of "presidential non-interference in monetary policy," the Federal Reserve may become a political vassal, with inflation targets giving way to debt costs. -Historical experience shows that after a sudden change in the leadership of the central bank, inflation may increase by an additional 1-2 percentage points within two years, and it is not conducive to economic growth. Market concerns: Inflation expectations have risen -Based on data from inflation protected bonds, the expected inflation rate for three to four years has risen from 1.5% to 2.36%, reflecting market concerns about Powell's resignation. -Inflation expectations have a "self fulfilling" characteristic. If the credibility of the Federal Reserve is damaged and long-term low inflation commitments fail, inflation may continue to rise. Key Warning: Failure of Defense Line or Outbreak in Crisis Although the current inflation has fallen in the short term, the core credibility of the Federal Reserve in combating inflation relies on independence. If the defense line collapses, like a "brake failure", the risk may erupt in a concentrated manner in future crises.