Dahua Bank: Bank of Japan's interest rate hike may be constrained by cautious political and economic factors

According to a report by Golden Finance, two analysts from the Global Economic and Market Research Department of Dahua Bank pointed out that although the Bank of Japan may continue to raise interest rates, it will become increasingly cautious. Analysts said, "In the short term, the market focus will shift to the fragility of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's governance after consecutive election defeats, while Japan is still negotiating a trade agreement with the United States." Due to the uncertainty of US tariff policies, the Bank of Japan's July meeting may maintain interest rates unchanged, but is expected to maintain a normalized stance on monetary policy. Dahua Bank still expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% at the September meeting, and further raise interest rates to 1.00% in the first quarter of 2026.