It seems that the plot of Chuanbao Game is evolving towards Trump's best script: Powell voluntarily resigns. Exacerbating the issue of overspending on the renovation of the Federal Reserve building, which can be seen as dereliction of duty, and making false statements in congressional hearings as perjury (any ambiguity on certain key points by Powell can be classified as a basket of false statements), and then amplifying it infinitely through the media, abandoning the monetary policy path debate and focusing on dereliction of duty and false statements, causing great public pressure on Powell, forcing him to resign voluntarily. It depends on whether Powell continues to resist the historical mission of maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve or resigns voluntarily due to pressure. If Powell really can't withstand the pressure and resigns, it will also be a short-term impact on the market. Bond defenders are worried that long-term bonds will get out of control in the future, and the short-term will also increase long-term bond yields, putting pressure on risk assets. As we discussed earlier, the impact of Zihua's debt should be of various levels. Once Trump has determined the successor, the market is expected to interpret it as "dove turn". It is expected that the Federal Reserve will be forced to cut interest rates without recession, and then panic will ease and rise.