QCP: Market expects Ethereum and Bitcoin to face downward pressure around $4000 and $120000 respectively

According to BlockBeats, on July 28th, QCP released a daily market analysis report stating that Ethereum is gradually approaching the $4000 mark it has touched for the first time since December last year. With the inflow of funds from spot Ethereum ETFs surpassing Bitcoin ETFs for seven consecutive days, the market's attention and speculation on ETH have become increasingly heated. Considering that the market value of ETH is currently only one-fifth of BTC, and the threshold for attracting institutional and corporate funds is relatively lower, it is more sensitive to price push. Although ETH has dominated most of the market headlines in recent weeks, Bitcoin has shown a quietly resilient resilience. Although the inflow of funds into spot BTC ETFs has slowed down, the price trend remains stable. Even though a long-term holder sold 80000 BTC last Friday, the market showed strong resilience as traders quickly bought on dips and the brief rise in volatility was quickly suppressed. The dominance rate of BTC remains around 60%, with almost no volatility in the past week, reflecting the market's long-term confidence in BTC as a value storage asset, rather than a comprehensive rotation into the altcoin market. This also means that there is still room for ETH and other mainstream currencies to further compete for market share. As a comparison, when ETH reached a historic high in November 2021, BTC's dominance rate fell below 45%, while ETH was close to 20%. However, in the short term, the market's long positions have become relatively crowded. The open interest of perpetual contracts for BTC and ETH is approaching a one-year high, reaching $45 billion and $28 billion respectively; The perpetual funding rates of major exchanges also generally exceed 15%. Although it has not yet reached the level of 'irrational exuberance' or extremely high liquidation risk, a small negative shock could trigger a chain reaction similar to last Friday. It is worth noting that some large investors have started to profit from their long positions. For example, a large ETH 26SEP25 3.6k/4k/4.2k Eagle Watch price differential combination has been liquidated; At the same time, a large number of BTC 8AUG25 put options worth $110000 have been purchased as a hedge against short-term downside risks. Based on the flattening of option flows and risk reversals in front-end maturities, the market expects ETH and BTC to face some profit taking pressure around $4000 and $120000, respectively. But in the current context of strong momentum, powerful narrative, and macroeconomic environment coordination, QCP believes that long-term holders and institutional investors will continue to "buy on dips", as seen last Friday.