FED WEEK: DECISION EXPECTED, GUIDANCE CRITICAL Kalshi assigns a 97% chance of no rate change (holding at 4.25–4.50%) at the July 30 meeting. The real focus: forward guidance. 🔍 Market expects 2 cuts by Jan 2026, but timing is uncertain. The dot plot and Powell’s tone will drive expectations. Key risks to watch: – Tariff-driven inflation (Trump-era policies) – Labor cooling without a recession – Q4 disinflation pace Base case: Cuts in late Q3 and Q4, but a hawkish tilt could push the first move into 2026. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-meeting(*Walter Bloomberg)