Using Nick's two articles and Steven's tweet to discuss the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision tomorrow morning: 1. It is highly likely that there will be no interest rate cuts in July, and the market should have fully anticipated this. But this time there should be two opposing votes on the decision not to cut interest rates - most likely from dovish supporters Waller and Baumann. This is also the first time in nearly 30 years that the Federal Reserve has had two opposing votes on an interest rate decision, which also shows the internal divisions within the FOMC. 2. Since the second quarter, inflation has been relatively mild, coupled with the pressure of Trump Besant calling for interest rate reduction, the Federal Reserve has also understood that it is inevitable to return to the path of interest rate reduction in the future. Is it important just because of the reason for interest rate cuts? 1) Do we have to wait a few more months until tariffs have no impact on inflation before making a decision? (It may be too late) Or rather, as long as there is not a significant rebound and the monthly inflation rate does not rise, we can return to interest rate cuts at the next meeting. 2) Or should we give more weight to the employment data? The new employment in June was actually relatively poor, and aside from the government's new employment, private non farm sector employment has been significantly lower than expected, which is also the reason why Waller advocated for interest rate cuts before. The employment data for July, which will be released this Friday, shows that institutions unanimously expect an increase of 110000, which is significantly lower than the 140000 in June (which was supported by government employment). See what Powell said at the press conference 3. Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve and continuous appeal for interest rate reduction will have an increasing impact. If Trump's nomination for the next Federal Reserve becomes clear, the market will pay more attention to what the future Federal Reserve chairman (who will be the shadow chairman five years ago next year) says. The market is always trading expectations. This is what nick said: "The ability of the Federal Reserve to resist Trump may have come to an end", as mentioned earlier here https://(x.com)/qinbafrank/status/1938049369775002039? As time goes by, when Powell's term is only half a year or even shorter, the power of the "shadow Fed chairman" becomes increasingly powerful, and the market may have to pay attention to what Powell says.