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qinbafrank
qinbafrank|7月 31, 2025 04:06
Speaking of Powell's press conference next morning, it can be said that Powell is practicing Tai Chi, but he cannot be said to be an eagle. Two logics: 1. His previous tough attitude and tone of speech when releasing eagles were not the same as this morning's dilemma, they were very resolute. 2. Arrange for Waller and Bauman, the two directors who voted against the interest rate meeting (supporting interest rate cuts), to speak out in the next two days. If he is tough, he should first arrange for hawkish directors to speak as a reinforcement of his neutral stance at the press conference, and then let dovish directors take the stage to guide market expectations and prevent a major impact. But he specifically stated at the press conference that the two voting opponents are expected to not explain their opinions in the next one or two days. The Federal Reserve has its independence and decision-making mechanism, as well as relevant thresholds for implementing monetary policy. As the chairman, he cannot openly follow the wishes of the executive branch, which is a professional ethics (and the reason for not cutting interest rates now can also be said to be in the past). However, the President's opinions and inflation data (which are still moderate) will still affect his judgment. So we adopt a compromise approach, pushing the two dovish directors to the front and letting them speak. If there is a slight support for a return to interest rate cuts in the future, it is estimated that he will also take advantage of the situation.
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Timeline

8月 29, 18:35The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates, economic growth is strong
8月 29, 17:00The market focuses on core PCE data and non-farm employment data
8月 29, 12:43Inflation has not developed in a direction favorable to the Federal Reserve.
8月 29, 12:32Traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September.
8月 29, 11:00The Federal Reserve's inflation indicator is about to be released
8月 29, 10:11ETH hits a new high, BTC.D breaks the upward trend
8月 29, 01:36The probability of a Fed rate cut in September reaches 86.2%
8月 29, 00:02Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports a 25 basis point rate cut in September
8月 28, 22:35Federal Reserve officials may support significant rate cuts
8月 28, 22:31Waller supports a rate cut at the Federal Reserve's September meeting

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