Analysis: August and September are usually the months with weaker BTC trends throughout the year, or may enter a consolidation period due to weakened policy catalysis

The latest investment research report from Matrixport points out that the core catalyst for a new round of Bitcoin's rise is emerging. Despite frequent positive news related to Ethereum, including enhanced ETF fund flows, increased corporate allocation, and the possibility of the SEC releasing pledge mechanisms, the funding rate has only risen to 15%, failing to fully reflect market heat. The report suggests that August and September are usually the months with weaker Bitcoin trends throughout the year. As the FOMC meeting comes to an end and policy catalysis weakens, considering that the next FOMC meeting will be held on September 17th and there is a lack of new policy catalysis in the short term, market sentiment may turn cautious and the market may enter a period of consolidation. In addition, Matrixport points out that US fiscal uncertainty has always been the core driving force behind the rise of hard assets. Recently Trump's plan to expand the US $5 trillion debt ceiling has significantly affected the market, and the balance of US treasury bond bonds has surged by more than 10% after the implementation of the policy. Bitcoin is currently at the forefront of this macro change, and the flow of funds remains a key clue to determine its upward potential.