The US non farm payroll data will be released tonight, which will have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's September interest rate decision

On August 1st, the July employment report, which will be released at 8:30 pm Beijing time on Friday, is expected to show an increase of 110000 job positions, a significant decrease from 147000 in June; The unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly from 4.1% to 4.2%; The average hourly wage rate is expected to increase by 0.3%, higher than the 0.2% in June. If the prediction is accurate, it will strengthen the view that the job market is slowing down, although it may not necessarily require a response from the Federal Reserve. Given Powell's' eagle dove interweaving 'presentation at the press conference on the 31st, without providing guidance on the September interest rate decision, and pointing out that there are many data to be released before then, Friday's July non farm payroll report will be a piece of the puzzle that will help influence the Federal Reserve's expectations for a rate cut in September. Market expectation: If the non farm payroll falls below 100000 and the unemployment rate rises, or if the tariff effect is proven to be a short-term shock, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in September, triggering a new round of decline in the US dollar and a rapid rebound in BTC; On the contrary, if the non farm employment data unexpectedly exceeds 150000, it may rule out the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates twice this year.