Base case update: I expect 2025 to be a down year for the US stock market, marking the beginning of the third 50% drawdown since 2000. Gold and T-bonds are poised to be top performers, while cryptocurrencies are likely to be the worst. The Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index (BGCI) is up 7% YTD to Aug. 1, matching the gain in the S&P 500, despite a 7.5% decline in the Bloomberg Dollar Index. With approximately four times the volatility of the S&P 500, BGCI’s flat performance in 2025 vs. beta may be a warning. Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/szjg27gq1z50 {BI COMD} #gold #bonds #bitcoin #stockmarket @BBGIntelligence(Mike McGlone)