Adjustment Phase One: Falling in ConfusionThe market downturn is inexplicable but traceable: one ️⃣ Macro data does not support interest rate cuts, although expected, Powell's tough wording has suppressed bulls two ️⃣ Unreasonable correction of employment data+replacement of labor bureau personnel, market concerns about inaccurate data affecting the Federal Reserve's policy judgment The market's decline is due to the avoidance of future uncertainty, coupled with an adjustment in expectations for not cutting interest rates in September (once a year). So the point of the game is: one ️⃣ Is the market reaction excessive two ️⃣ When will the market bottom out The first reason I think there is a high possibility of overreaction in the short term is that even if the macro situation does not develop in a positive direction, there is no reason to point to recession or higher inflation. The market's shock like a startled bird is often an excessive adjustment in the short term, such as the tariff shock at that time; Secondly, I think it's too early for the long-term bottom to be reached. Before the confirmation of interest rate cuts, the market will continue to fluctuate within the range. I haven't been doing very well in this round of operations myself. When ETH/BNB broke through, I had high chasing positions, and I was even trapped in the cryptocurrency and stock sectors of the US stock market; It seems that before cutting interest rates, it is always necessary to keep cash to deal with various unexpected situations, unless there is a sharp decline, incomplete holdings, and no leverage. In addition, we are preparing to short some counterfeit stocks as a pair trade to hedge our large currency spot positions. Welcome to discuss.