Analyst: Bitcoin falls back to key support level, institutional buying becomes key variable

BlockBeats news, on August 3rd, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr posted that due to lower than expected non farm payroll data (73000 vs 110000), the Federal Reserve's fifth consecutive inaction and internal divisions, as well as the escalation of tariff tensions and other macroeconomic negative impacts, the global market has turned to a "safe haven" mode: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have performed the worst since April, US bond yields have fallen by nearly 20 basis points, and gold has received capital inflows. Bitcoin is under simultaneous pressure, rapidly rebounding from a high of $119800 to $112000, with 30 day momentum dropping to+3%, and ADX falling to 36, indicating a weakening of short-term bullish momentum. On chain activity has decreased, but the outflow from trading platforms still indicates that the market is continuing to attract funds. Despite the intensification of short-term fluctuations, the structural bullish logic remains unchanged. Strategy and institutions have increased their holdings of over 30000 BTC in the past week, and the Max Pain in the options market has remained stable at $118000, with high strike price bullish positions dominating. The "Crypto Project" initiated by the SEC is also expected to alleviate the long-term regulatory pressure on the industry. If Bitcoin maintains stable support at $110000-113000 and its momentum rebounds to above 8% -10%, the market is expected to retest the $119000-12000 range; If it falls below $110000, it may revert back to $105000-107000. In the coming weeks, the game between macro risks and institutional buying will determine the direction of the next stage.