HTX DeepThink: Fed's failure to release easing schedule triggers market shock

On August 5th, Chloe (@ Chloe Talk1), a columnist for HTX DeepThink and a researcher at HTX Research, analyzed that the FOMC meeting in July maintained interest rates at 5.25% -5.50% without providing any guidance on future interest rate cuts, which has raised concerns in the market about "maintaining high interest rates for a longer period of time". The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds immediately rose to 4.24%, the US dollar index returned above 100, gold fell below $3270, Bitcoin experienced a short-term correction to the $116000 range, and on chain activity simultaneously decreased. However, the July non farm payroll report released three days later unexpectedly experienced a "cliff like decline": only 73000 new jobs were added, lower than the expected 180000, and the cumulative employment data for May and June was revised down by about 90%. The reality of "systemic overvaluation" in the labor market has prompted a rapid reassessment of the Federal Reserve's policy path, with the probability of a CME FedWatch rate cut skyrocketing from 38% to 82%, and the bet on two rate cuts within the year rising to 64%. The 10-year yield subsequently fell below 4.10%, with gold rebounding by $40 during the day and Bitcoin briefly rebounding before falling again to around $112000. Despite the sharp drop in short-term employment data causing severe market volatility, structural data such as household debt ratios, credit card default rates, and commercial loans indicate that the United States is still in a "growth slowdown" rather than a systemic recession stage. This combination of "employment decline+inflation easing" may indicate that monetary policy is about to shift from tight to loose, and risk assets are in a window period of high volatility and liquidity game. Note: The content of this article is not investment advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment product.