CryptoDaddi
CryptoDaddi|Aug 06, 2025 20:27
CRV: The Inevitable Supply Shock for @CurveFinance CRV holders are incentivized to lock their tokens as vote-escrowed CRV (veCRV) to gain voting power on liquidity pools, boost yields & share in protocol revenue. This removes tokens from circulation for extended periods, often perpetually, as locks can be extended indefinitely. Nearly 100 million CRV was locked in the last month alone. 154 million locked over the past two months. With over 40% of the circulating supply locked for an average of 3.75 years, much of it being held by yield aggregators like Convex Finance ( CVX ), Stake DAO & Yearn Finance ( YFI ) who relock to maintain their boosts. The veCRV flywheel rewards locking with real yield from Curve's stablecoin liquidity dominance (crvUSD & pool fees) which encourages extensions. Curves emission schedule features a gradual "soft halving" with a 15% annual decay rate, making the token deflationary by nature. Emissions peaked early & are now tapering sharply, reducing new supply entering circulation. This is hardcoded into the protocol. No governance can reverse it without a fork. As emissions fall, any demand spike (most likely to occur from stablecoin growth) will hit a wall of illiquidity. Remaining emissions will trickle out over 250+ years, with rates continuing to decline. Tokens are flowing off exchanges at rates that far exceed new supply. This suggests that holders are accumulating & locking as opposed to selling. Thus reducing liquid supply available for trading. Daily outflows average about 6.2 million in CRV leaving exchanges which is over 20x daily emissions even with reduced rates. Even in the midst of the market downturn, outflows continued averaging 6.2 million daily in early August 2025. This trend aligns with Curve's ecosystem growth (crvUSD TVL & bribes increasing APYs) pulling even more CRV into lockup. If outflows averages fall to even 2 million daily, that's still 10x emissions. Curve dominates stablecoin liquidity (1.2 billion TVL in Convex alone) generating real revenue shared with veCRV holders. As stablecoins explode (via regulations & tokenization) demand for CRV rises for governance & yields. Higher CRV price → increased emission value → more bribes → deeper liquidity → more fees back to lockers. Recent launches like Savings crvUSD (scrvUSD) boosted deposits & yields, contributing to a 500% surge in the later part of 2024. Stablecoin wars (crvUSD adoption) will drive utility, while locked supply caps upside selling pressure. The inevitable supply shock for CRV is hard coded by decaying emissions & driven by demand. It's a matter of time before Curve has it's day. Will you be there to enjoy it?(CryptoDaddi)
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