Analysis shows that there is a serious deviation between the Federal Reserve and market interest rate pricing

BCA Research analyst Dhaval Joshi pointed out that the market's pricing of US interest rates deviates significantly from the Federal Reserve's stance, and there may be a risk of mispricing. He believes that the weakness in the US job market is mainly due to a slowdown in labor supply growth, rather than a decrease in demand. Joshi warns that interest rate cuts may exacerbate supply-demand imbalances, reignite inflation, and lead to policy mistakes. In addition, he emphasized that the first released economic data may have biases due to incomplete information, and the revised data can better reflect the true situation.