July CPI data outlook: The most important macro data for this week is the July CPI data released on Tuesday evening, which determines the strength of market expectations for market stagflation. Because the actual implementation time of equivalent tariffs is in early August, and July is still the stage of the 20% benchmark tax rate implementation, the impact of tariffs in July should be similar to that of May and June. The current institutional consensus expectation for July CPI is a year-on-year CPI of 2.8% and a month on month CPI of 0.2%, with a core CPI of 3% and a month on month CPI of 0.3%. The old practice is still to first look at the Cleveland Fed's inflation forecast for July, with a CPI of 2.7% year-on-year and 0.16% month on month, and a core CPI of 3.04% year-on-year and 0.24% month on month, which is basically slightly lower than expected. Only the core CPI meets expectations (rounded). Looking at the real-time inflation data of @ truflation again, July was a trend of first falling and then rising, with overall stability. Overall, the release of the July CPI tomorrow night is likely to be slightly lower than or in line with expectations, and the possibility of significantly exceeding expectations is unlikely. We hope it will not be criticized. If the data is indeed in line with expectations or lower than expected, it is good news for the market. Combined with the weak non farm payroll data at the beginning of the month, it should have raised the market's expectation of interest rate cuts.