Using the short-term holding cost and standard deviation range of BTC to determine whether the market is overheated Core of Short term Holder Cost Benchmark Model -Short term holders (STH): Investors who have bought Bitcoin in the past 155 days and are more sensitive to price fluctuations. -Cost Basis: The average buying price of short-term holders. -Standard Deviation Bands: A fluctuation range of one or two times the average buying price, used to measure whether the price is relatively "calm" or "overheated". Chart interpretation Blue line (STH Cost Basis): The average buying cost for short-term investors. Green line (-1 σ interval): Short term holders are experiencing overall losses, which has historically been a good buying area. Orange line (+1 σ interval): The market is starting to heat up and prices are entering the potential resistance zone. Red line (+2 σ interval): The market is overheated, with multiple bull peaks appearing here throughout history. The current price is 117510 The short-term holding cost of 108569 is an important support level during a pullback. If it falls below, the next strong support will be at the -1 σ level of 94868. $128914 corresponds to the+1 σ level, which is a key resistance level for the upward trend If there is a breakthrough, it is expected to impact $145937 (+2 σ), which could be the peak of this cycle (based on current costs, if short-term holder costs continue to rise, a higher upper limit cannot be ruled out)