Tonight's encrypted life and death battle! Bitcoin: plummeting, collapsing, or breaking through and soaring? Global capital is focused, multiple key events will shake up the cryptocurrency market, and the long short game of Bitcoin has entered a decisive moment. 1、 Geopolitical changes, BTC's safe haven attribute awaits examination Zelensky's sudden visit to the United States and closed door talks with Trump have hidden variables in the situation in Eastern Europe. If conflict escalates or military aid signals are released, risk aversion will heat up, and gold and BTC may receive capital inflows. Historical data shows that during geopolitical crises, the correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 can drop to -0.8. If the US stock market falls, BTC may become a safe haven alternative. 2、 Eurozone trade data to be released, stablecoin risk looming At 17:00 today, the Eurozone trade account was released. If the deficit widens, the expectation of the European Central Bank cutting interest rates will be dashed, and liquidity tightening may lead to the depreciation of the euro, triggering the risk of USDT run. The current exchange's stablecoin reserves are volatile, with open interest contracts for Deribit options increasing by 190%, and high volatility call options trading active. 3、 The US real estate index is being adjusted, and the Federal Reserve's policies are affecting BTC Tomorrow at 2 am, the US housing index will be released. If it falls below the boom bust line of 44, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September will rise to 70%, which may weaken the credit of the US dollar and benefit cryptocurrency. At present, BTC market value accounts for nearly 60%. 4、 Chain changes, institutional lock-in, three major game paths In the past 24 hours, Bitfinex has closed 32000 BTC futures short positions and Deribit options open contracts have exceeded $57 billion. Institutional focus: 1. Conflict escalation → US stock decline → BTC gains safe haven buying opportunities 2. Economic recession → Weak US dollar → Increased proportion of BTC market value 3. Liquidity crisis → Stablecoins off anchor → DeFi bottom fishing opportunity now Tonight, BTC will either plummet and explode, or break through and rise. The battle between old and new finance is yet to be determined.