I was awakened by the message from Kitty @ Cato'CryptoM and realized how it had fallen so badly. When I slept, the US stock market had not yet opened, and the price of BTC was about to return to $116000. Mainly because I have been strengthening my sleep due to poor health recently, I woke up in confusion. Kitty told me that it was because the market had pessimistic expectations for a September interest rate cut. I looked at the detailed time and found that the decline began at 21:30 Beijing time, which happened to be the opening time of the US stock market. Within an hour, there was a large volume decline. At the same time, I also looked at the US stock market and saw that the Nasdaq and S&P also began to increase volume at this time. This indicates that the decline of Bitcoin this time is different from the previous two, and the magnitude of the decline in the US stock market is increasing today, causing reactions in both cryptocurrency and stock markets. Therefore, it is definitely not a standalone coin market crash event. Among them, the Nasdaq started to decline at the opening, but the S&P still rose for a period of time before starting to decline in volume. At the same time, we saw that gold was also falling, and the yield of long-term US bonds was also falling. This should not only be an expectation of a September interest rate cut, but also possibly an expectation of an economic recession. This has led to a risk market for cash recovery, with more funds entering the risk-free bond market. I searched the market and didn't see any obvious panic at the information level. This kind of decline is actually quite troublesome. If there is clear negative news, such as the previous whale crash, or the Fed's people speaking out, or the tariff war, one can make a good judgment. However, it is the most difficult to judge when there is nothing. Unexpectedly rising and falling are both troublesome, at least from the current market information, the decline of cryptocurrencies, the decline of US stocks, the decline of gold, the decline of US bond yields, and the rise of the US dollar index all indicate that the market's expectations for a September interest rate cut are increasing, but the reason for the increase is due to concerns about a possible economic downturn or recession. This situation is somewhat like an early pattern of trading decline, although it is highly likely that we have not yet entered this stage, as there is no clear data to support the economic downturn. However, the market is definitely ahead of expectations. So this may return to Trump's game of economic and monetary policy. It is indeed difficult to determine whether the market will increase panic or have already anticipated the current economic situation, but what is certain is that the Jackson Hole annual meeting should be the first point of the market game, whether Powell will release expectations for the September interest rate cut and expectations for the US economy. I'll hold onto my long orders first. Kitty suggested that I increase some margin to avoid a drop caused by ETH filling the gap. At present, my multiple book losses are 50%. This article is sponsored by Bitget | @ Bitgetzh