I thought that the Fed should cut rates 3-6 months ago. They had a clear justification at the time with persistent disinflation, and I worried that their excessive patience would cause undue harm to the labor market. But today, as inflation has only accelerated, it appears that their patience was justified and my support of a cut was incorrect. Even at the time that I was calling for a cut, I continued to say that the Fed wouldn't cut yet... because there's a huge difference between what I think the Fed SHOULD do vs. what I think they WILL do. Thankfully, I've studied their reaction function enough over my 12-year obsession with monetary policy and central banking that I reiterated the fact that they wouldn't cut. Today, I'm still reiterating that same fact -- no cuts until the 1M and 3M Treasury yield fall further, with both trading at/below 4.1%. Right now, the 1M Treasury yield is 4.345% and the 3M yield is 4.221%. They continue to say, no cuts are coming... but if they are coming, it's likely to happen in the back 2-3 months of the forward 3M period. This means, as I've been saying for weeks, that the FOMC will likely not cut rates at the September meeting. If and only if the 1M Treasury yield falls from here, then I will say that cuts are coming in September. Good luck and embrace nuance.(Caleb Franzen)