The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter|Aug 23, 2025 17:00
The US government needs lower rates more than anyone: US Treasury interest payments have reached a record 1.2 trillion over the last 12 months. If rates stay steady, annual interest expense would hit 1.4 trillion in 2026. To keep interest costs stable, the average yield on US government debt, which has a maturity of 5-6 years, would need to drop below 3.1%. The 5-year Treasury yield is now ~3.8%. This implies the Fed would need to cut rates by at least 75 basis points to at least "calm" the fire. Deficit spending is out of control.(The Kobeissi Letter)
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