
qinbafrank|Aug 24, 2025 01:55
This analysis of the U.S.-China rivalry is spot on. Both countries are preparing for this competition in the way that suits them best: the U.S. is adopting a mercantilist approach with tax cuts, interest rate reductions, and deregulation (similar to the fiscal-industrial policy framework we discussed earlier with the 'one body, two wings' strategy https://(((x.com)))/qinbafrank/status/1948189456584110278?s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A); while China continues to rely on the industrial policies that have been highly effective over the past 20 years, driving industrial upgrades and iterations. However, both sides are learning from each other—America is experimenting with industrial policies, while China is propping up the stock market and simultaneously stimulating consumption. You can question whether they’ll achieve their goals, but you can’t doubt their determination, intensity, or commitment—this applies to both the U.S. and China.
The rivalry is also dynamic, with interests and alliances constantly shifting. As I mentioned earlier, this is an era of strategic coalitions and alignments https://(((x.com)))/qinbafrank/status/1915431342353133709?s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A.
When predicting the future trajectory of the U.S.-China rivalry, we can draw lessons from past cases of great power rises: like the direct clashes between England and the Netherlands; or the U.S. and Britain teaming up during WWI and WWII to dismantle a third party; or the prolonged U.S.-Soviet standoff until one side could no longer sustain it. Right now, all three scenarios seem possible, but the most likely outcome at this stage appears to be a prolonged stalemate leading to isolated fragmentation https://(((x.com)))/qinbafrank/status/1897639334804922772?s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A.
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