[Zandi: Probability of U.S. Recession in the Next Year is 49%] Golden Finance reports that Moody's Chief Economist Zandi continues to issue warnings about the increasing downside risks to the U.S. economy. States accounting for nearly one-third of U.S. GDP have already fallen into recession or are highly likely to do so, another one-third of states are experiencing economic stagnation, and the remaining one-third are still expanding. According to Moody's machine learning model, the probability of the U.S. economy entering a recession within the next 12 months is 49%. While tax cuts and defense spending may boost the economy next year, Zandi stated that the current baseline expectation is to "barely avoid a recession." He pointed out that the end of this year to early next year will be the most vulnerable period for the economy, as the inflationary impact of high tariffs and tightened immigration policies will peak, severely compressing household real income and consumer spending. Zandi also noted that, given the recent downward revisions to employment data, he does not rule out the possibility that subsequent data may indicate the economy has already begun to contract.