Today's analysis isn't too hard to write. Although BTC's price dropped from $117,000 on Friday and even broke below $111,000, the changes in the U.S. stock market weren't too significant. This suggests that if it were a systemic risk, the pullback in the stock market should have been larger. However, in reality, U.S. stocks didn't experience much of a decline. From CME's early trading to the U.S. stock market opening, the average volatility of the Nasdaq and S&P was only around 0.2%, indicating that stock market investors currently don't perceive significant risks. Of course, last Monday was similar, but by Tuesday, the market started to drop. At least for now, U.S. stocks still seem relatively healthy. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has taken a harder hit. Interestingly, during Trump's press conference, he didn't make any overly aggressive statements about the economy, which shows that some institutions' concerns about a U.S. recession haven't yet triggered opposition from Trump. Overall, the market has returned to the tug-of-war between Trump and the Federal Reserve over rate cuts. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September has now dropped to 82.2%, partly due to reflections on Powell's speech and partly due to lingering concerns about whether the U.S. economy is truly heading into a recession. Today, Barclays Bank predicted that the U.S. economy might be stagnating, with a 50% chance of entering a recession within the next two years. Barclays also believes that concerns over a recession will lead the Fed to opt for rate cuts in both September and December. I can't say whether Barclays is right or wrong, but at least for now, their statements haven't fully turned U.S. stock investors bearish. If U.S. stocks aren't entering a bearish phase for the time being, then BTC, which is closely correlated with U.S. stocks, likely won't perform too poorly either. Looking back at Bitcoin's data, Monday's drop triggered a lot of investor turnover, especially among recent bottom-fishers who suffered losses and were the most active in trading. Early investors, however, showed little reaction. Despite the price decline, the reasons for this drop are the same as last week's—concerns over September rate cuts and a potential recession. So, the $111,000 to $112,000 range still appears to be relatively stable support for now. Personally, I opened a long position at $111,500 and didn't choose to exit at $113,500 this morning. Maybe I'm being a bit greedy, but I still feel this level is stable unless new bearish news emerges. For now, it seems okay. Based on last Monday's situation, I want to wait and see whether U.S. stocks will accelerate their decline like last Tuesday or start to stabilize before making further decisions. Sponsored by Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh