The recent market trend has been quite anxious, and it is unclear whether it is a downward jump or a major correction at the end of the rise. Let's analyze the historical candlestick retracement to see how the market will trend in the future and how we should respond. Starting from the big cycle, we can see from the weekly chart that there have been several times since 2024 when the market has fluctuated around the EMA20 bull/bear boundary, with some quickly recovering and continuing to rise after touching, while others have fallen below and delved deeper. Assuming a rapid rebound from this downward trend, there is at least one more chance of reaching 12 million. If there is still no rebound after two weeks of volatility, then from a timing perspective, it may take advantage of the favorable news of the 9.18 interest rate cut to reach the EMA60 line, which has not fallen below the previous two levels, around 93000. After discussing the weekly chart, let's take a look at the daily chart. Since last Friday's Jackson Hole meeting, the large pie has risen above the EMA20 but has not yet stabilized. It has already fallen below the EMA100 line and reached the Fibonacci 0.5 level, which is considered strong support. If the large pie can take advantage of the momentum brought by Nvidia to stabilize at the EMA100 line and rebound upwards at the closing line today, we can first see the EMA20 around 114800, which is the position where the negative line plunged on August 25th, and multiple daily moving averages are gathering pressure. Unless there is a strong breakthrough, bulls can take profits here, and bears can consider opening orders here. Ether is still strong at present and has not fallen below EMA20, maintaining a strong bullish pattern. Therefore, it can only focus on low long positions. It is risky to open a short position recklessly, and the Air Force needs to wait until it exits the top form before opening a single position on the right shoulder, which has a higher winning rate. But if the current rise in Ethereum is really in line with the liquidity of the Big Cake's warehouse swap shipment, then we must be wary of the sudden deep pullback that may come. After all, the interest rate cut is coming soon, and whether it is a 25BP or 50BP cut, the market can take the opportunity to make a big deal out of it.