
Sina 🗝️⚡ 21st Capital|Aug 27, 2025 14:02
How the futures market showed hints of a sell-off last week
From this week's Bitcoin Intelligence Report:
Futures Market Recap
Last week, we highlighted that the sustainability of Bitcoin’s rally rested in the futures market, with funding rates holding above the 5% baseline and open interest climbing.
Speculative positioning was becoming increasingly aggressive, as bulls repeatedly tested short-side resistance while price hovered above a dense long cluster. With Max Pain levels concentrated at $120k for shorts and $116k for longs, the setup pointed to asymmetric risks: downside stress if $116k failed, but an upside squeeze if $120k broke.
Since then, price failed to hold above the $116k long Max Pain zone, triggering a cascade of long liquidations. This intensified sell pressure pushed Bitcoin down to $111k before the market regained footing and bounced back above $116k. The episode underscores how leverage clusters can dictate short-term volatility, turning liquidation zones into accelerants for directional moves.
With Bitcoin near 114.9k, Max Pain levels frame a narrow corridor: longs are stressed at $111k (-3.2%), shorts at $120k (+4.5%). Price sits between these zones, making $111k–$120k the decisive battleground. A break either way could trigger cascading liquidations.
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