[Probability of Fed Rate Cut in September Reaches 88.7%] According to CME 'FedWatch' data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in September is 88.7%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 11.3%. For October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 5.5%, with the cumulative probabilities of a 25-basis-point and 50-basis-point rate cut at 49% and 45.5%, respectively.