
DC大于C|Aug 31, 2025 08:48
Changes in SOL Position Distribution
Chart based on SOL URPD data: Flow of SOL on the chain from 8:00 am on August 29th to 31st, 48 hours. The driving force of BTC emotions and the SOL self narrative (SOL version micro strategy and SOL ETF speculation) ecology, combined with the judgment of SOL emotional changes. I went out yesterday, updated for two days today
To be honest, it's not easy to do homework this day. On Friday, PCE was within expectations, but the market did not see it as a good thing and believed that inflation may be rising. The market was worried that there might be problems, and at that time, the US stock market also fell sharply. Fortunately, on Saturday and Sunday, BTC stopped falling and stabilized above 108. There is currently no new information, and the weekend sentiment has not changed much. It is still a game of interest rate cuts.
What will happen to the US stock futures tomorrow, especially with unemployment data next Friday. How to achieve it that is conducive to interest rate cuts without making the market feel like it is in recession? This is a problem. I don't know how it will go tomorrow, whether to continue the decline on Friday or temporarily stabilize and wait for new information. I'm not sure yet.
But at least BTC remains stable at around 108, and market sentiment is also good over the weekend. Even if it goes down to 103-108, it's still okay unless there are bigger negative factors. Of course, with some good news, the market will rebound. SOL doesn't have much independent narrative, it naturally follows. At present, it belongs to the oscillation of rising and falling.
Returning to SOL's data, the turnover rate for Friday and Saturday remained high, with over 29 million chips exchanged as of 8:00 am this morning, as shown in the red font in the figure.
The main reason is that chips below 190 are profitable and leaving, and there are even very early ones, such as chips around 26 US dollars, leaving. Of course, only about 150000 pieces. And there hasn't been much movement for high priced chips above 215. For now, we have switched to the 195-215 range, which is the range where we have been fluctuating since the recent rally.
As I have been saying before, if there is a sudden increase, I will sell the chips that have already made a profit. Moreover, without independent narrative and greater liquidity, it seems difficult to achieve a significant increase. And there are also relatively few long-term chips that have left the market in other intervals.
From the accumulation of chips and short-term turnover of chips, it still forms short-term support between 165-176. Then 176-194 seems to have new support, which is relatively short-term.
Over the weekend, SOL followed the overall market sentiment and fluctuated between 199-207, mainly due to the game of interest rate cuts. Let's see how the market sentiment of stock index futures opens tomorrow, especially the unemployment rate data on Friday. There may have been a risk aversion before, mainly depending on the market interpretation, whether to speculate on interest rate cuts or economic recession. It affects the rise and fall of the market, which in turn stimulates the rise and fall of SOL.
The above is not intended as investment advice and is provided for reference and learning. Thank you all.
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