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0xSun
0xSun|9月 02, 2025 08:21
Some friends in the comments think I held on stubbornly from opening to closing prices until I made a profit, but actually, this short position never had any floating losses throughout. Let me break down the strategy in a bit more detail. But first, I want to emphasize that the EV (expected value) of shorting and longing is not symmetrical. I only use low-leverage shorting as a tool. If you don’t have a clear trading strategy or strict risk control ability, don’t try to imitate. The first part of the operation was right when the market opened. I’ve shared this in previous posts as well—prices above 0.4 or even 0.5 are considered high in my view. Here’s a simple logic: if I had participated in the first round of the 0.015 presale, I would definitely lock in profits at this price. So even though I didn’t join the presale, I chose to short. Then, in the 0.25–0.2 range, this price was already close to WLFI token company ALT5’s cost price. At the time, the unlocking situation for other tokens was unclear, and a single positive news event could easily pump the price. So I closed most of my short positions. The second part of the operation was around the opening time. First, there was quite a bit of news about the token’s circulating supply at launch, which I felt was bearish after reviewing. Additionally, after the opening, I checked on-chain data and found that presale participants were more or less choosing to sell. This kind of massive profit-taking is hard to absorb in the short term. Right at that moment, the price slowly climbed back above 0.3, so I shorted again and fully closed my positions again in the 0.25–0.2 range. Currently, based on FDV (fully diluted valuation), it still seems overvalued. However, in the short term, the biggest factors affecting price are the token’s actual circulating supply and the unlocking rules for the remaining 80% of the presale. I’ll use these two aspects to decide whether to re-enter with a short-term long position or a mid-to-long-term short position. If there’s no clear long or short logic, I won’t participate in WLFI trading for now.
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