
大老师Bugsbunny|Sep 02, 2025 12:53
Now the 'collapse of UK bonds' is not just a problem for the UK, but a trigger for global bond market risk repricing. It will simultaneously affect the logic of gold, cryptocurrency markets, US bonds, and US stocks. Below, I will analyze in sections:
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1. Gold
• Good gold: British treasury bond bonds plummeted → sterling devalued → investors worried about the stability of sovereign debt → risk aversion rose sharply. Gold, as a risk-free asset, will directly benefit.
The US dollar effect: If the US dollar strengthens due to risk aversion, it will exert some pressure on gold prices in the short term, but usually gold can still resist decline or even rise during bond market crises.
Reference history: During the 2022 UK LDI crisis, gold quickly rebounded after short-term fluctuations.
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2. Cryptocurrency market
• Short term: Increased volatility
Fund hedging → US dollar strengthening → Risk assets (including Bitcoin and altcoins) may face selling pressure.
Mid to long term: Positive narrative
Debt crisis+fiscal deficit → Investors doubt the robustness of the fiat currency system → Cryptocurrencies (especially BTC) benefit as "digital gold".
• Capital structure: Currently, the liquidity of the cryptocurrency market is limited. If US bond yields continue to rise, short-term funds will flow out of Crypto to pursue safe returns, but the long-term narrative may be stronger.
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3. US Treasury bonds
• Infectious effect: The collapse of British treasury bond bonds made the market worried about the global fiscal deficit → US treasury bond bonds were also sold off, and the yield rose.
Risk aversion differentiation: However, compared to the UK, US Treasury bonds are still the world's deepest pool of safe assets. After a period of selling, US Treasury bonds are likely to attract global capital inflows, especially in the short end (2 years, 5 years) where they are easier to buy.
Long term pressure: 10-year and 30-year US bonds may follow the rise of UK bonds, highlighting 'deficit anxiety'.
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4. US stock market
Negative stock market: Bond market collapse → Global financing costs rise → Corporate profit discount rate increases → Valuation pressure.
Financial sector risk: Financial institutions such as banks, insurance companies, and pension funds that hold large amounts of bonds may suffer losses.
Industry differentiation: High valuation growth stocks (technology stocks) are most affected by interest rate shocks, while defensive stocks (utilities, healthcare, essential consumption) are relatively resistant to decline.
Short term volatility: If the UK debt crisis is interpreted as a "global liquidity tightening," S&P and Nasdaq may experience a significant pullback.
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Logical Chain Summary
UK debt collapse → Global bond market risk repricing →
Gold: Direct benefit (increased safe haven buying).
Cryptocurrency: Short term pressure, medium to long term positive BTC narrative.
US Treasury bonds: sold off in the short term, with long-term yields rising, but still a safe haven asset.
US stock market: Valuation pressure increases, short-term risks intensify, and sector differentiation is evident.
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