Let me break down the probability advantage I saw at the time: 1. BTC IV was at a low level, ETH IV was at the 75th percentile, with an IV spread buffer. 2. ETH/BTC had a one-sided rally into a potential resistance zone. 3. The Calls I sold were for 2 weeks at the 5300–5500 range. In summary, I would only lose money if ETH continued to skyrocket within 2 weeks to 5300 and the exchange rate kept outperforming BTC. I left room in my position for the exchange rate to rise to 0.45 as a margin of error. Lastly, a bit of superstition—seeing talk on the timeline about ETH flipping BTC