I'm just sharing my own opinion, and my opinion might not necessarily be correct. First of all, the current game is definitely between Trump and the Federal Reserve. We've talked about this topic 100 times already. Trump isn't interested in the data; all he wants is rate cuts, while the Fed focuses more on inflation and economic data, aiming for balance. So, from the starting point, Trump and the Fed are naturally at odds. This leads to the main storyline of the game being Trump's control over the Fed before Powell steps down in May 2026. If Trump can't exert pressure on the Fed before Powell's term ends, then based on the Fed's trajectory, we might not see a full-blown economic recession, but economic downturn and stagflation are highly likely. Moreover, Trump being at a disadvantage in this game could weaken his political power. After all, high interest rates put pressure on employment, real estate, and other economic activities, which isn't good news for the Republican Party in the midterm elections. Not to mention the first three quarters—just looking at the period before May, everything will depend on economic data. If there's economic downturn risk, the market will struggle; if inflation rises, the market will also struggle. From May until the midterm elections in November, there's a six-month window. Let's see what Trump can do. Sponsored by Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh