Just based on my own understanding, which might not necessarily be correct. Personally, I think we’re currently in the early or mid-stage of a stagflation period, still quite far from a recession. It’s even uncertain whether we’ll definitely enter a recession, as the current situation is clearly a result of interest rates. If Trump were to ignore inflation and lower interest rates, it could indeed improve the economy, but the risks of inflation might pile up higher and higher. If Trump doesn’t intervene in the market and lets the Federal Reserve make decisions, the probability of an economic recession might increase. There’s even a chance of a substantial recession happening in 2026. However, the sharper the recession, the more aggressive the recovery period afterward—essentially, the liquidity injection—will be. This is also why I’m more optimistic about 2027 and 2028, especially 2028, which should mark the start of a new economic cycle. Sponsored by Bitget ｜ @Bitget_zh