Satoshi Nakamoto said on Bitcoin Talk in April 2010: 'Lost bitcoins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone.' According to the analysis by the data firm 'Sound Money Report,' due to reasons like forgotten private keys, damaged hard drives, or the unexpected death of owners, an estimated 2.3 to 7.8 million bitcoins may have permanently exited circulation. In other words, the actual supply cap of BTC isn’t 21 million but somewhere between 13.2 to 18.7 million. The 2.3–7.8 million figure comes from analyses by multiple institutions: ◦ Ledger’s report from May 2025 states that the number of lost bitcoins is between 2.3 and 3.7 million. ◦ Analyst Timothy Peterson estimated in his June 2025 report that over 6 million BTC are irretrievable. ◦ Research by Glassnode and ARK Invest in 2023 estimated that around 7.8 million BTC are in a 'hoarded or lost' state, though this includes some long-dormant OG wallets.