Rui
Rui|Sep 11, 2025 12:46
Here’s the translation: "Let’s do a quick recap of Holo’s opening, now that the dust has settled. Just sharing my thoughts for laughs—don’t take the logic too seriously: Alpha opened at the ambiguous level of 0.4, then started climbing with high trading volume as it absorbed selling pressure. When it hit around 0.5 (roughly $1 billion in volume), that was about the waterline for Upbit. Going higher than that started to feel off. Between 50-58 minutes, it surged to 0.7+ and even touched 0.8. That’s already an extremely high level (both the Open price and Upbit’s two spikes were around this range). Since it was close to the opening, it was pretty clear the path would be a high open followed by a downward trend. Then the spot and futures markets opened together. The first thing I noticed was the funding rate at -2%, with a spot-futures price spread of 0.02+. It immediately felt like the team was using a low funding rate to lure people into going long. So, I opened a short position. The subsequent downward movement was pretty smooth. It paused around 0.55-0.6, but the funding rate didn’t normalize. During this time, open interest was slowly increasing, which made me think the drop wasn’t over yet. I held on until it hit 0.48, which was the second pause point. This level is close to Alpha’s opening price, and it’s generally hard to break below that in the first few days. I had something else to do, so I closed my position there. In summary, Alpha opened at a relatively high price with strong volume. It’s highly likely the project team was pumping the price to offload their holdings while controlling the funding rate. How much it drops depends on how bold the team is."
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