Caleb Franzen
Caleb Franzen|Sep 11, 2025 12:57
This is the key chart from the CPI data. It's the all items ex-Shelter inflation rate on a YoY basis. I extract Shelter because it's the largest component (33% of CPI) and the laggiest (8-12 months behind real-time housing data). It continues to accelerate, reaching +2.5% YoY. In April 2025, this inflation rate was only +1.35% YoY. It's nearly doubled in 4 months. This means that ALL OTHER COMPONENTS WITHIN CPI are showing an aggregate inflation rate well-above the Federal Reserve's +2% YoY target, while reaccelerating. In fact, this is the highest pace of inflation for this datapoint since April 2023... which was 28 months ago! However, in April 2023, this datapoint was showing disinflation. This is a major concern.(Caleb Franzen)
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