[Moody's: Probability of U.S. Recession in the Next Year Reaches 48%] Moody's Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi stated that the latest machine learning indicators show a 48% probability of a U.S. economic recession in the next 12 months. Although below 50%, it is close to the 40% range, which is typically associated with or followed by a recession. He noted that slowing employment and data revisions have placed the economy at a critical point.