
帕尔 | 無極Infinity®|Sep 18, 2025 03:16
Pal's BTC Market Analysis -9.18
Daily chart
1) Market structure:
At present, BTC is building a volatility around 1073-1230. I saw that after stepping back on 107 and hitting eql, it is moving upwards and oscillating upwards. Currently, it belongs to the stable range - eq is testing 1175 bsl.
So currently, the high-level trend is downward due to plundering and 1073 eql waiting for plundering.
At present, the daily level is experiencing a volatile upward trend. Let's wait for the 1175 BSL to be plundered, and then pay attention to whether there will be opportunities for short selling near 119.
If it falls below 1143 here, then MSB has appeared, indicating that the current daily fluctuation and rise within the range have ended, and we need to go short.
2) Regarding the message aspect,
Last night, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25BP. According to the dot matrix chart, the most likely path for the current rate cut is to cut interest rates by 25BP in October and December.
So this interest rate cut is completely expected and a reasonable risk management cut. Overall, interest rates will not be adjusted quickly in the short term, but rather tend to be adjusted slowly and gradually, and guided by expectation management to guide the market.
So currently, the recession hype is gone, and interest rate cuts are in line with expectations, which will definitely be positive in the long run. What we should pay attention to now is whether short-term positive news will be implemented and whether we will follow the market structure to make a certain correction.
When we talk about the daily level as a correction, the hourly level is a decline, and the weekly level is still volatile.
At present, the next interest rate meeting is likely to continue with a 25% interest rate cut on October 30th. There are basically no major macro news this month.
In terms of time, these 30-40 days are a good opportunity for a pullback to bottom.
So personally speaking, I tend to fall first and then rise again.
Hour chart
1) Still in an upward structure, yesterday's retracement of the buying opportunity for OB, currently holding multiple orders
2) 1175 is definitely going to be plundered here. Let's take a look after plundering. Currently, there is no structural support for empty positions.
3) First, let's take a look at the plunder of 1175. After the plunder, we will consider the situation. Currently, the liquidation is 1181. Once it arrives, we can consider taking profits and then assess the situation.
Usdt.d
1) Continue to follow this ob, wait for the reaction here, and once again attract more funds, then pay attention to BTC hitting bottom.
2) If it falls below ob, pay attention to the range - L position price response.
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