
Zane|Sep 19, 2025 08:30
๐ Crypto Market Cycle
Scale changes the math. The base gets bigger. The multiples get smaller. What matters is where this cycle can stretch.
๐น Historical TOTAL Market Cap Peaks
- 2013 bull: 15B
- 2017 bull: 830B
- 2021 bull: 3.3T
- 2025 (current): 4.2T
(Peaks are rounded. Current is todayโs ballpark.)
๐น Growth Multipliers
- 2013 โ 2017: 55x
- 2017 โ 2021: 4x
- 2021 โ 2025 (current): 1.25x
๐ The rate of increase is slowing each cycle. From 55x to 4x to 1.25x.
๐น Possible Scenarios This Cycle
- Bear case: Stays near here. Peak 4.5Tโ5T.
- Base case: Modest growth with broader participation. Peak 6Tโ7T.
- Bull case: Institutions plus retail mania plus ETF flows plus friendlier policy. Peak 8Tโ10T.
๐ My Take
- We are in diminishing returns mode. With 4T+ already printed, the most realistic path is a 6Tโ7T peak.
- 10T is a stretch but not fantasy if global liquidity, ETF demand, and a true alt rotation align.
- Expect smaller multiples in future cycles as crypto shifts from startup to macro asset class.(Zane)
Timeline