Perhaps everyone's perspective is slightly different, and it cannot be said that all risks can only be discovered through summarization. Instead, it requires a more objective and rational approach to understanding. Early signs of risk can be identified within an individual's judgment framework, and it is indeed possible to make some preparations in advance before the market completely turns bad. Of course, it cannot be predicted 100% at any time. Give a few examples: 1. In April of 2024, there was a mid level adjustment in the US stock market from April 12th to the end of April. Due to the rebound in inflation hitting market expectations of interest rate cuts, it can actually be seen from the CPI data on April 10th and the non farm employment data of the previous week. At that time, after the CPI data was released, it was said that there would be a moderate adjustment in expectations. https://((((((x.com)))/qinbank/status/1778053083932831964? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A。 Liquidity is expected to be tight from December 2023 to March 2024. https://(((((x.com)))/qinbank/status/1736780478043045934? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A， Because the overnight reverse repurchase will consume bank reserves. 2. As for the tariff shock at the beginning of this year, in early January, we talked about that the impact of Trump's policy this year was greater than the economic fundamentals and the direction of the Federal Reserve's policy https://(((((((x.com)))))))/qinbafrank/status/1874686960691995069? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A， I believe there are short-term expectations, midday pains, and long-term bullish sentiment. In late January of this year, there will be a mid level adjustment in the US stock market. https://(((((x.com)))/qinbafrank/status/1883689330235134429? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A。 On February 2nd, it was believed that the biggest tariff shock of the year had begun to hit, but it had just begun. https://((((((x.com)))/qinbafrank/status/188583235488075862? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A， On February 18th, my friend asked me what I could invest in, and I said I was gradually reducing my holdings and waiting for the golden pit. On February 21st, the US stock market began to decline and continued to decline for nearly two months thereafter. Of course, it does not mean that every risk can be predicted. At least last year, Japan's interest rate hike on August 5th and the far lower than expected non farm payroll data triggered recession concerns, leading to a decline in carry trades and market crashes. I did not anticipate this and could only take advantage of the situation to buy some. As for the potential risk of rising inflation that you mentioned in the future, I have discussed it before https://(((((((x.com)))))))/qinbafrank/status/1968006068317065302? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A， As a conservative expectation, CICC's calculation of the future trend of inflation in the United States should prepare for a mild rise in inflation for several months before reaching its peak. The Federal Reserve may have to pause interest rate cuts again and wait for inflation to peak. At that time, the market may experience another wave of adjustment. However, I believe that a small to medium level adjustment is necessary because after inflation peaks, the Federal Reserve can return to interest rate cuts next year. Here we need to talk about the prediction of risks, which requires time expectation and level assessment https://(((((((x.com)))))))/qinbafrank/status/1949291328774517180? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A， The impact of different levels of risk on the market is also different. They are also personal opinions and thoughts for reference.