Moody's on a US recession: The probability of a recession within the next 12 months jumped to 48% in August, the highest since the 2020 pandemic. This is according to Moody’s Analytics’ leading economic indicator, which uses extensive economic data and a machine learning model. Historically, such a high probability has never occurred outside of recessions. This comes as US job market conditions have deteriorated significantly over the last few months. Additionally, the BLS revised non-farm payrolls down by -911,000 for the 12 months ending March 2025, marking the largest annual downward revision on record. Would earlier Fed rate cuts have prevented this?(The Kobeissi Letter)