[CME Data Shows Probability of Fed Cutting Rates by 25 Basis Points in October Rises to 91.9%] According to the CME 'FedWatch' tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged at its October meeting is 8.1%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is as high as 91.9%. Looking ahead to December, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged is only 1%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 18.5%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut has risen to 80.5%.