财经少华
财经少华|Sep 22, 2025 07:50
After the rate cut, is the feast for digital assets about to begin? The logic behind mainstream digital assets can generally be divided into two types: digital gold (like $BTC) and digital oil (like $ETH). The former is based on probability theory, mathematics, and cryptography, using algorithms to simulate absolute scarcity, serving as a hedge against global currency overissuance and devaluation. The latter is the infrastructure or fuel for the future of financial systems on-chain, global assets on-chain, and AI on-chain. So, after the Fed's rate cut, is the feast for digital assets about to begin? Check out this chart below—it illustrates the four-year cycle pattern of digital assets: $BTC undergoes halving every four years (e.g., 2024, 2020, 2016, 2012 were halving years). The historical pattern is as follows: 1. In the first year after halving (as shown in the fourth column of the chart), the fourth quarter is often the most frenzied period in the four-year cycle. 2. The second year after halving (as shown in the first column of the chart) is often the beginning of a downward cycle, with most of the time—even the entire year—being bearish. 3. The other three years after the bear market ends (as shown in the right three columns of the chart) are typically upward cycles, culminating in the fourth quarter of the first year after halving. This year is the first year after halving, and the fourth quarter is just around the corner. Combined with the Fed's rate cut, will history repeat itself?
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