🚨 MARKET SEES 70% CHANCE OF U.S. GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN IN 2025 Prediction markets on Kalshi are now pricing a 70% probability of a U.S. government shutdown this year — the highest level yet. A US government shutdown could begin October 1, 2025, if no funding agreement is reached by September 30 (end of FY2025). Non-essential operations halt; essential services (e.g., security, Social Security) continue. KEY ISSUES: 🔸 Health Care: Dems seek ACA subsidy extensions (expiring, risking millions uninsured) and Medicaid reversals. 🔸 Partisan Flip: Dems leveraging shutdown like GOP did in 2013 over Obamacare. GOP accuses Dems of unrelated demands. POTENTIAL IMPACTS: 🔸 Furloughs for ~800k workers (back pay later); delays in IRS, parks, inspections. 🔸 Economic cost: Billions lost, GDP hit, market dips. 🔸 Health disruptions: Grants pause, premiums rise if no deal. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxshutdownby/shutdown-by/kxshutdownby-25(*Walter Bloomberg)