The pancake may have peaked in its cycle, but the knockoff season has just begun Today, CT once again sings the "bull market over - great retreat" theory, which is highly consistent with the structure of the biggest pain point in the options market. BTC and ETH have both peaked in their cycles. Especially after the historic large-scale long liquidation on Monday, September 22nd, the sentiment and positions of BTC and ETH bulls were severely affected. Let's review the temporal and spatial background of the cryptocurrency market corresponding to the two large-scale long liquidation events mentioned in Ansem's tweet in the previous cycle: one ⃣ January 11, 2021: At that time, the economic cycle was in the recovery cycle of the Merrill Lynch clock, the monetary policy environment was interest rate cuts+quantitative easing, the structure of the cryptocurrency market was dominated by retail investors and slightly involved in the structure, the market sentiment was greedy, and excessive leverage was accumulated. two ⃣ December 4, 2021: At that time, the economic cycle was in the midst of the prosperity of the Merrill Lynch clock ➡️ During the overheating cycle, the monetary policy environment is characterized by a contraction of quantitative easing and expectations of interest rate hikes. The structure of the cryptocurrency market is characterized by retail investors and institutions competing to chase after counterfeit currencies. The market sentiment is extremely greedy, with excessive leverage accumulation. three ⃣ September 22, 2025: The current economic cycle is overheating at the Merrill Lynch clock ➡️ During the recession cycle, the monetary policy environment is characterized by a 9-month pause in interest rate cuts followed by a resumption of interest rate cuts and quantitative tightening. The structure of the cryptocurrency market is characterized by an oversupply of BTC by institutions and retail investors, with a neutral market sentiment and excessive leverage accumulation. Based on the above spatiotemporal background review, my judgment is that the attribute vector of the large-scale long liquidation on September 22 this week is closer to that of January 11, 2021, but the reason is due to the excessive over allocation and leverage accumulation of institutions and retail investors on BTC. Although the valuation of altcoins, which are in a historical relative position, has been affected by chain liquidation, the overall upward trend has not been disrupted, and many strong currencies have directly rebounded, repaired, or even reached new highs. This large-scale liquidation does not mean the immediate end of the bull market, but under the guidance of the triple expectation game of stagflation/recession/soft landing, BTC and ETH will experience low volatility at their current positions, while altcoins may emerge from a post apocalyptic bull market under the influence of the seasonal effect of Uptober in October. Powell admitted last night that there is no risk-free path between maintaining employment and suppressing inflation; For us cryptocurrency investors, there is no risk-free path between maintaining Beta returns and pursuing Alpha returns. For me personally, I choose to abandon beta (without configuring BTC and ETH at all) and embrace Alpha (AI Agent, AI Agent, and AI Agent).