Recently, there has been a lot of discussion in the poor awesome community of Big Pie. One of the views is that Bitcoin is the leading indicator of US stocks. This statement is not entirely new, as it is often brought up whenever the big cakes and US stocks are out of sync. But upon careful consideration, using the cryptocurrency circle to benchmark against US stocks, using the Big Dipper to benchmark against the three major indexes, especially the Nasdaq, is already a recognition and recognition of the Big Dipper. Anyway, the cryptocurrency market is far smaller than the US stock market, and the big pie itself is at best an individual stock. It cannot rise forever, there will always be moments of rotation and rest. Moreover, due to its small size, BTC's liquidity is naturally much smaller than that of the US stock market, so its response to macro risks is often faster and more intense. For example, funds are concerned that the Federal Reserve may not be dovish enough, or that geopolitical risks may spread, and BTC may hit a wave first, while the US stock market has not yet reacted. The pancake may be even more of a magnifying glass for risk appetite. When funds are willing to take risks, they rise faster than the US stock market; When funds need to hedge, they fall more fiercely than the US stock market. So it's easy to give people a feeling of 'going first'. But conversely, is it possible for the US stock market, especially the Nasdaq, along with gold, to be a leading indicator for Bitcoin? Because it is actually difficult for us to say which stage comes first and which stage comes later in the sustainable market, after all, market bullying is like a M ö bius loop, constantly repeating itself, unable to distinguish between before and after, and can only find a certain period of "synchronization and divergence" in the interweaving of macro and emotional factors. Looking back at history, from the perspective of major cycles, Bitcoin is indeed more sensitive. 2022 bear market: Bitcoin collapsed several months ahead of the sharp decline in the US stock market (from 60000 to 20000), indicating the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike on the stock market. 2023-2024 Recovery Period: Bitcoin rebounds from 20000 to 70000, ahead of a comprehensive bull market in the US stock market, benefiting from ETF approvals and halving cycles. Unlike the previous two cycles, the decoupling between the Big Dipper and the Nasdaq at this time may only be temporary, as in the long term, a new round of easing cycles has just begun.