
Hanzo ㊗️|Sep 26, 2025 20:02
here’s the problem with the “treasury wrapper” meta
using the table by @lukecannon727 as proof
> what mnav is
mnav = market cap / net asset value
net asset value = assets minus liabilities
if a company holds 500 btc + some cash and has debt, you net it out. mnav tells you how many times the market is paying above the actual pile of assets
> why this table matters
dozens have mnav > 20
plenty sit above 100
some are literally 1,000+
that means the stock is priced at hundreds or thousands of times the value of the assets they claim to hold
> why premiums get this crazy
tiny floats and illiquid otc tickers create easy squeezes
“treasury” press releases attract attention flows from crypto + rwas + ai tourists
people anchor to microstrategy and assume “treasury = number go up”
borrow is scarce or expensive, so obvious shorts can’t size
promoters front-run at-the-market offerings and dump into the hype
> how the wrapper works
rebrand as “digital treasury” or “rwa platform”
publish vague lines like “institutional-grade treasury strategy”
mark holdings at peak prints, ignore liabilities and op losses
issue shares or converts into the pump, repeat
> how to read mnav like an adult
~1.0 means the stock ≈ its assets: boring but real
1–3 can be justified by operations or growth
3 needs a real story and real cash flows
10 is mania territory unless you can point to a durable edge
100 means the equity is mostly hype beta
1,000 is a trading game, not an investment
> extra red flags
no on-chain proof of reserves or custodian attestations
“unused cash” that’s actually restricted, pledged, or offset by converts
token holdings that are illiquid, vesting, or borrowed
constant share issuance, shelves, and “atm” programs
fuzzy language around “ai-driven allocation” or “tokenized t-bills”
> how this usually ends
insiders raise into strength
liquidity thins
narrative cools
price slides back toward nav while dilution keeps grinding
> ways to not get wrecked
start with nav math, subtract debt, haircut illiquid tokens
demand wallets or third-party attestations
track share count and filings weekly
treat >20 mnav as a speculation, not a treasury play
if you think “arb” exists, check borrow availability and fees first
> bottom line
the table shows the meta in numbers: a crowd of “treasury” tickers trading at mnavs that only make sense if gravity is cancelled.
some will trade well for a while, but most are wrappers around marketing, not assets.
i warned you about this type of meta over 2 month ago, here's my post about ETH wrappers 👇(Hanzo ㊗️)
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