Ray Dalio’s observations on Anglo decline seem overstated, perhaps bc he speaks from within that perspective. He is obviously right about the UK, but to even discuss the UK and US in one breath is archaic. In Beijing itself, the currently fashionable theory appears to be the G7 -> G2 power architecture transition, which is to say that two complementary superpowers decide everything. After this period of posturing ends, the relationship likely settles back to core cooperation on shared interests. Tariffs function chiefly to exert suzerainty on American allies, not adversaries. American investment into Chinese equities is surging again. TikTok matter is settled amicably. The erosion of European hard and soft power seems to me the more clear and permanent trend. On hard power the substitute is America, while on soft power it is China. European clean energy agenda, classical music, even its architecture, are now China’s domain. European geopolitical interests are now set in Washington. So actually America is entering, not exiting, its period of true empire. It may seem quaint in the future to remember a time when a European product could compete with an American or Chinese one, or when the G7 mattered, or when Europe could exert cultural leadership, or when the question was who would join the EU next. Europe functions as the summering location for both sides, as well as the migration centre for those displaced from global conflicts. It will also function as a diplomacy hub. It is not a coincidence that first Geneva and then Madrid served as sites for China-US discussion. It is a recognition of what is the new neutral ground. Ironically this will usher in a period of increased multilateralism on things that actually matter.(Zhu Su)