[Polymarket Predicts 71% Probability of U.S. Government Shutdown Before October 1] Data from prediction platform Polymarket shows that the probability of a U.S. government shutdown before October 1 has risen to 71%, an increase of 17% compared to last week. The total amount of funds wagered in the related market is close to $950,000. Additionally, the probability of a government shutdown for the entirety of 2025 is priced at 82%. If a government shutdown occurs, the Federal Reserve's policy meetings may be affected due to data gaps.