BARCLAYS ON POSSIBLE US GOVT SHUTDOWN 🔸 Rates markets may see shutdown as tilting Fed policy toward easing. 🔸 High chance of Oct 1 shutdown, likely ≥5 days; could last longer. 🔸 Each week cuts GDP growth ~0.1pp; usually recovered later. 🔸 Key data (jobs report, CPI, retail sales) would be delayed. 🔸 OMB memo allows termination (not just furlough) of nonessential staff → bigger economic hit. 🔸 Limited Q4 GDP impact, but employment data may be distorted.(*Walter Bloomberg)